The Best Bets: Locks You Should Hammer (10/17-10/23)
I analyze the best bets of the week across a variety of sports, ranking them from safe to undervalued to curious long-shots.
Part of analyzing any betting market for sports is a multi-step process. You need to remove emotion, analyze trends like a stock-broker, and decide your risk tolerance based on personal finances and overall guts. In addition, it is important to shop at various books to find the best possible price. Here are my picks for games between October 17th and October 23rd for NFL, MLB, and NBA.
NFL
Bills vs Titans (MNF- 10/17)
SAFE
Player Prop Parlays (FanDuel) Josh Allen to throw 2+ TDs and Bills to win (-128) The Titans rank 22nd against the pass and with the Bills being favorites, this is a great way increase your odds instead of a straight money line (Bills -245.) ($100 to win $78)
UNDERVALUED
Line/Total Points Parlay 3 (FanDuel) Buffalo Bills -3.5/ Under 53.5 points (+210) The Bills should put up points on a below average defense, and if they score their usual 30-40 they will only need some garbage time help from Tennessee to hit the over. There is a risk the Bills defense could stifle Tennessee, which is why I’m hesitant on the over in this game. Buffalo has won games 40-0 and 35-0, and while I don’t think Tennessee gets shut out I do like the lower spread and the under to just hit. At +210 and a lower spread to cover, its a good play at this price. ($100 to win $210.)
LONG-SHOT
Winning Margin (5-bands) Buffalo Bills to win by 11-15 points (+800) The Bills have won two games by over 35 points, another by 22 and one by 18, but I expect this one to be a bit less with attempts of the Titans to control clock. A two touchdown win seems likely, but I don’t think this will be a blowout. beyond that. At +800 you are already taking a risk regardless, and this one would be reasonable to throw at. The odds could be a bit better, but you shouldn’t throw a lot at this one unless you have to. ($100 to win $800.)
MKF PROP OF THE WEEK: ($100 to win $360) Game script will be against Henry in this one, even in full PPR scoring. I like Allen to go over and feast on a weak secondary. The Bills have the best run defense in the league and I expect Henry to land around 15-17 fantasy points.
MLB
Dodgers vs Braves NLCS
SAFE
Futures Betting (FanDuel) Dodgers to Win Series (-140)
After dropping Game one, the Dodgers are still the money-line favorite to win the series. Consider that after game two, the Dodgers will have three straight games in Los Angeles with a chance to seize firm control of the series if they are able to take game two with Max Scherzer on the mound. Pound this play, they’re the better team. ($100 to win $71.43)
UNDERVALUED
Futures Betting (FanDuel) Predict World Series Matchup: LA Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox (+260)
I’ll discuss Boston more in the next segment, but with me being so confident LA will advance, I will take the team with the better payout in the other series. LA vs Houston only gets you +220, and I think Boston has a better chance of advancing given they split the first two at home. This one is all about price point for me, and Mookie Betts returning to face a team he won a title with would be quite the story. ($100 to win $260.)
LONG-SHOT
Futures Betting (FanDuel) Series Correct Score: LA Dodgers to win 4-2 (+370) Predicting baseball series can be wildly unpredictable, as we saw last year when the Braves went up 3-1 on the Dodgers. But with a significant pitching advantage soon to come and three straight home games, I think the Dodgers close this out in six games with them winning game two, the Braves snatching one more on the road in LA, and the Dodgers winning in Atlanta in game six to advance. ($100 to win $370)
Astros vs Red Sox ALCS
SAFE
Futures Betting (DraftKings) Red Sox Series Spread (+1.5, -220)
There isn’t a ton of futures value left out there on Boston, and if you are still not 100% confident that they’ll win the series just yet, this is your play. Looking at the future, the Sox have three straight games in Boston with a meh mix of Astros starters on deck. At worst i think this series goes the distance, and even if the Astros win in seven this will still cover. -220 isn’t great, but the discrepancy between books is large (-280 at FanDuel,) so its the best and safest option left. ($100 to win $44.44)
UNDERVALUED
Futures Betting (DraftKings) Red Sox to win series (+105)
This will probably be the last chance for you to get Boston at plus odds, as a game three home win would tilt the scale dramatically in their favor. Houston is without their best pitcher Lance McCullers for the remainder of the series, and the Red Sox have scored six or more runs in five of their seven playoff games. If you’re a believer in Boston, now is the time to lock it in on them going to the World Series. ($100 to win $205.)
LONG-SHOT
Futures Betting (DraftKings) Red Sox to win series 4-3 (+500) or (FanDuel) Red Sox to win World Series (+390)
There’s a scenario where the Astros take one in Boston and the Sox head back to Houston up 3-2, lose game six then win a game seven on the road. That scenario is the most likely, as I don’t see Boston winning three in a row to win in five. If you like them long-term, the odds are less for them to win the World Series, but in the case Atlanta advances, Boston would have home-field and would probably be the betting favorite, so you might as well just take them now while they have the lowest odds of any team remaining thanks to Atlanta’s game one win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. ($100 to win $600/$100 to win $550.)
NBA OPENING WEEK/NBA Futures
FanDuel Parlay Monsta of the Week:
I love this play this week because of how bad Oklahoma City will be this season. -12 is a big spread and garbage time might eat it but i expect the Jazz to be locked and loaded for another 55 win season. Chicago, with their new look roster, should make a statement against a rebuilding but interesting Pistons team. I like Portland to cover against a Kings team with one of the worst defenses in league history last season and the Timberwolves to get an opening day win against the youngest roster in the league in Houston.
NBA FUTURES
My Favorites:
Futures (FanDuel)
Bulls and Knicks to each have 45+ regular season wins (+480) ($100 to win $480)
Clippers, Bulls, Blazers, and Knicks to each have 43+ regular season wins (+500) ($100 to win $500)
These can be risky due to season ending injuries derailing a season, but the Knicks and Blazers both hovered around 41-42 wins in a season that was ten games shorter than normal. The Clippers even without Kawhi will hit this number, and I believe the Bulls are good enough to hit 45 this season with their new additions and the weird state of the Eastern conference. It may come down to the last day, but keep the faith.
Team Futures (DraftKings)
Milwaukee Bucks to be Eastern Conference #1 seed (+180) ($100 to win $280)
I don’t think the Nets will be pushing super hard in the regular season and will have frequent rest days for stars. The Sixers don’t appear to be on the same page and the Bucks are clearly the best team left after that. I expect Giannis to play hard most nights and the Bucks to be the top of the east.
Player Futures (DraftKings)
Tyler Herro to win Sixth Man of the Year (+1000) ($100 to win $1,100)
If the Heat are improved as advertised and threaten the top of the East, it will be because of players like Herro. Jordan Clarkson of the Jazz is the betting favorite, but it is rare that the same player wins this award back to back years. Herro has shown improvement this preseason, and if he can average around the same as Clarkson last year (17-18 PPG) and the Heat’s record is close enough to Utah’s, I think this award is his.
Jaren Jackson Jr. to win Most Improved Player (+1600) ($100 to win $1,700)
This award is largely based on circumstance, as Julius Randle winning it last year was due to him playing almost five more minutes per game than the prior season and being the go to scorer for New York. He averaged a 5 PPG increase, something I see Jackson doing quite easily if he stays healthy. He only averaged 14 PPG last year in 11 games played, and should see full starters minutes now that he’s fully healthy. If he can crack the 20 PPG barrier and Memphis is a playoff team, I don’t see how the award isn’t his. He’s averaged 17 before and has shown flashes this preseason. Betting favorite Michael Porter Jr. is a good pick, but because of his injury history I don’t see the Nuggets drastically increasing his minutes from the 31.3 it was last year. He should improve on his 19 PPG, but Jackson’s leap will be sizable this year. I’d also fade Jordan Poole who is likely to improve on his 12 PPG last season, but should assume a bench role when Klay Thompson returns.