Quarterback Roulette: Examining NFL Starting QB's High School Rankings and Why Many Were Undervalued
Despite a select few living up to their four and five-star potential, many who rise to the top often weren't recruited at all by major schools, or found themselves in the middle of the pack
Just on a purely mathematical basis, the likelihood of a quarterback not ranked highly succeeding versus a highly ranked quarterback is greater just on pure volume. Only a select few (normally 40) quarterbacks in the entire country receive a four star or higher ranking, and only about five to seven may receive a five-star ranking. But the flip side of this is that normally those higher ranked guys play for programs who receive a ton of exposure, and even if they falter a bit are given every opportunity to try to make it to the NFL. The same leash of opportunity isn’t extended quite as far for other players.
Plenty of things determine a recruiting ranking: living in a state like Florida, California, Texas or Louisiana, which already sees flocks of recruiters go there anyway, playing for a program in another state which plays nationally televised games against other big high schools, and being in direct vicinity of a major school like Ohio State or Oregon even if your state isn’t a recruiting powerhouse. Often times it can be pure luck that you get exposure and the word of mouth spreads through Hudl tapes, a viral play or something else. And a lot of the time none of this happens and you don’t get on the radar until you’re already in college. But what I found is many overlooked quarterbacks don’t grow into their body until later, were distracted by other sports when younger or were discovered by talented assistants in non-traditional areas.
Of the 32 starters, these were their rankings:
Stafford, Watson, Fields, Lawrence: 5 star
Winston, Hurts, Tua, Goff, Murray, Darnold, Bridgewater: 4 star
Ryan, Wilson, Prescott, Burrow, Carr, Jackson, Mahomes, Wilson, Herbert, Rodgers, Cousins, Mayfield, Tannehill: 3 star
Allen, Lance, Garoppolo: 2 star
Not ranked: Jones, Wentz, Heinecke
N/A Brady Big Ben (came before most online recruiting databases started in 2002)
A lot of the best quarterbacks aren’t the guys at the top of the list, let’s examine why.
Location Outliers
The two extreme examples of diamonds in the rough are Carson Wentz and Josh Allen. Wentz grew up in Bismarck, North Dakota, about three and a half hours away from the Canadian border, and was 5’8 125 pounds his freshman year. His junior year he didn’t play at all due to injury, a year in which most scholarships are offered. He had 25 touchdowns and 1800 yards his senior year, but compared to what other players are doing these numbers don’t exactly jump off a screen in a state with weak competition. Wentz received no FBS offers (Central Michigan was “about” to offer after Wentz shut down his recruitment but never did) and decided to walk-on to North Dakota State, where he sat for his first three (!) seasons, had dropped 25 TDs and 10 INTs his junior year, and suffered a broken wrist his senior year but still was high on boards because of NDSU’s FCS exposure. You could say Wentz was fortunate enough to be in the shadow of a FCS power growing up, but FCS quarterbacks before Wentz never went as high as number two overall. He was drafted purely on upside due to his frame (6’5 227) and arm talent. Go try and find a recruiting page for Wentz in high school, you can’t. Only 51 NFL players have ever come out of North Dakota, which makes his rise to prominence extremely hard to believe. Wentz’s career in the NFL has went sideways a bit due to injuries, but at one point he was the frontrunner for league MVP and still doesn’t excuse the lack of exposure he got coming up through high school. Trey Lance, also from a small town (Marshall, MN) followed a similar route to NDSU as Wentz, but found himself as a two star on most services.
Josh Allen’s story is very unique because although he did grow up in a talent heavy state like California, he was located in a town called Firebaugh, a remote town of 8,000 people in California’s central valley. The closest school nearby is Fresno State, who shunned Allen in recruiting and never extended an offer. Firebaugh had only ever produced one division one player in its history as a town, and this is how Allen’s mother described it in a Yahoo Sports article:
“Whenever people ask where we’re from, we always have to say Fresno,” Josh’s mother, LaVonne Allen, said. “Firebaugh is such a small town that unless you work in agriculture, you probably wouldn’t know it. It’s very much off the beaten path.”
Allen’s frame that we know now wasn’t quite developed, weighing 40 pounds lighter, but his stats in high school were there unlike Wentz. 33 touchdowns and over 3000 yards passing still didn’t push him on any FBS radars. The weak competition he faced in the central valley and lack of exposure at other showcase camps (played multiple sports) only got him buzz on the JUCO circuit. Reedley Junior College felt they had a steal and took the chance on Allen, and he proceeded to throw 26 TDs and five INTs his first season. Fresno again did not offer him and Wyoming and Eastern Michigan were the only schools interested in recruiting Allen. What makes the Wentz-Allen comparison so eerily similar is that Allen was discovered by Dave Brown and Brent Vigen, two Wyoming assistants who worked under head coach Craig Bohl at North Dakota State when they found and recruited Wentz in 2010-2011. Vigen saw the potential to grow into the frame we see now just like Wentz, and Allen would be the starter at Wyoming for the next two seasons.
Even the most optimistic people didn’t anticipate Wentz or Allen being future quarterbacks in the MVP discussion. Allen had a good sophomore season at Wyoming (28 TDs 15 INTs) but never threw better than 56% in college and would struggle his first year in the NFL with this as well. In his only showcase game at Wyoming vs Oregon, Allen didn’t impress (albeit with inferior weapons) but the arm talent was always there. The 16 TDs and 6 INTs his junior year allowed him to fall to Buffalo and the rest is history. The two screenshots above show the two chances to properly grade Allen both were well short and off the mark, as one came before his time at Reedley and one after. Both Wentz and Allen found ways out of their disadvantaged situations.
Importance of Coach Connections
Dan Enos is a well-respected college assistant known for identifying and developing quarterback talent. He was one of the only FBS coaches to register a semblance of interest in Carson Wentz, and also helped develop Tua Tagovailoa in 2018 when he worked at Alabama. At Michigan State, he signed Kirk Cousins from small-town Holland, Michigan and also signed Nick Foles out of Texas. Cousins nearly quit the team after the first practice, and wanted to give up football to pursue his medical career. But Cousins beat out Foles for the job in 2008, led Michigan State to a conference title in 2010 and would later surprisingly outlast Robert Griffin III in Washington.
Now he signed for $84M guaranteed with the Vikings and is one of the more established starters in the NFL. Scout had him as a two-star, Rivals three-star and ESPN not ranked. Mark Dantonio and Dan Enos identified Cousins after other targets fell through and had an advantage of being close-by, but Cousins still had to grind to win the job and avoid the temptation of transferring away. Cousins still doesn’t do anything elite but he’s good enough in several areas that should have garnered more attention nationally. He was the best quarterback in the most successful era in program history.
Daniel Jones rocketed to relevance late in his college career at Duke under noted quarterback guru and Duke Head Coach David Cutcliffe. Jones threw just 14 TDs and 11 INTs his sophomore season at Duke, but improved to 22 TDs and 9 INTs the next season despite playing two fewer games. Jones’ frame, mobility and positive buzz at the Manning Passing Academy led the Giants to taking him surprisingly high at sixth overall. Jones has been inconsistent in the NFL but has shown flashes this season despite a dysfunctional situation. Cutcliffe was the offensive coordinator at Tennessee when Peyton Manning was the quarterback and recruited Eli Manning when he was the head coach at Ole Miss. But the whole reason the relationship between Jones, Cutcliffe and the Mannings came to be was because of his high school coach, Larry McNulty. Jones was skinny when he took over the job as a high school sophomore—5’11’’ 150 pounds, and didn’t fully grow close to his current frame until his senior season.
As mentioned before, your junior season is normally when recruiting heats up and offers start to come in. Jones had interest from Ivy League schools like Harvard and Princeton due to his high GPA, but Ivies don’t give scholarships for athletics. Jones broke his wrist playing basketball in the spring and was unable to attend showcase camps the summer before his senior season. Jones would have a fantastic senior season—43 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing— but it took McNulty to call Cutcliffe and beg him to check out his film for him to get an FBS offer. Cutcliffe obliged but temporarily brought him on as a walk on until a scholarship opened up (greyshirting.) In the heart of ACC country, Jones was never ranked by any recruiting service and Duke got one of the bigger steals in recent memory.
Lying in the (Populated) Weeds: Texas and California Gems Everywhere
Patrick Mahomes doesn’t quite have the same hidden-gem story as some of the ones we’ve mentioned prior, but as he’s turned into one the best quarterbacks under the age of 26 in NFL history, you could classify him as a recruiting steal. In the 2014 class with those who ranked above him, only Deshaun Watson (one of the few five-star recruits who are starting in the NFL) Mason Rudolph, Kyle Allen (also was a five-star,) Deshone Kizer and Will Grier played an NFL snap. None of these players are in Mahomes’ tier. Growing up in Big 12 country, word had spread around about his talents in both football and baseball (son of former MLB pitcher Pat Mahomes) so he had a built in network with his dad being widely known. He threw for 46 touchdowns and 3,800 yards his junior year at Whitehouse— which caught the attention of Texas Tech assistant Trey Haverty, and word got back to new head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury had just got done molding Johnny Manziel into a Heisman winner at Texas A&M and loved his arm talent and physical gifts.
Mahomes committed to Tech largely because they threw the ball so much, but also because Rice and Houston were the only other FBS schools to send in concrete offers. Oklahoma State came in late and some services claim they may have offered, but the hesitation by many schools, including LSU, Baylor, Texas, and Texas A&M to not extend interest is perplexing. No program outside the state of Texas offered him at all despite strong numbers against top competition. One theory is that because Mahomes was a standout baseball player (entered in the 2014 MLB draft) schools were concerned he would become a professional baseball player and they would be left scrambling for other targets. He never attended big showcase camps because it interfered with baseball. Mahomes did play briefly for Tech in college, but the circumstances made it to where it was a perfect storm for Tech to take a chance on him, something bigger schools couldn’t afford to do. His big arm needed refinement due to his erratic nature, but Mahomes undoubtedly is the future of the quarterback position and baseball was a the smokescreen for recruiters.
Aaron Rodgers has always had an ego and chip on his shoulder, and it was molded in high school when despite standing at just under six feet his senior year and 180 pounds, he set the school record for passing yards (2303) and earned all-section honors. He only received regional small-school interest despite the achievement, from schools like Southern Oregon. One of the disadvantages Rodgers faced was that there were no modern recruiting outlets like YouTube, Hudl or Twitter to get tape out to a mass audience in 2003. Ben Roethlisberger faced a similar issue years earlier when he had to settle going to Miami of Ohio. Without any real FBS interest, Rodgers went to nearby Butte Community College, and Head Coach Craig Rigsbee sold him on the chance to elevate his stature. Rodgers beat out the current starter as an 18 year old and went on to throw for 28 TDs and 4 INTs as Butte went 10-1 and was ranked as high as number two. Recruiting still didn’t pick up, however, until a weird twist of fate.
Cal Berkeley head coach Jeff Tedford was scouting a tight end named Garrett Cross at Butte College who had caught 10 of Rodgers touchdowns that season, and originally had no interest in recruiting the QB position. But as Tedford examined further game film and came away impressed by Rodgers, he realized no one else was recruiting him and immediately offered a scholarship. Rodgers would be further overlooked getting picked 24th in the draft despite a stellar college career, but the motivation started long before when even after an elite JUCO season he still only was a three star prospect at best. Rodgers is now a surefire hall of famer and gave credibility to future QBs like Cam Newton to go the JUCO route.
Being the 184th best player in Texas is good enough for a three-star ranking, but Mayfield was not recruited by any Texas school besides Rice. While Mayfield was the starting quarterback for the Lake Travis High School, He led Lake Travis to a 25–2 record in two seasons and won the 2011 4A State Championship. He finished his high school football career totaling 6,255 passing yards, 67 touchdowns, and eight interceptions but despite his unassuming frame and lack of elite arm talent, he only received lower-tier FBS interest. He decided to walk-on at Texas Tech and became the first walk-on true freshman to ever start an FBS season opener. After falling out with Kliff Kingsbury who were honed in on other recruits (Mr. Mahomes) he again walked-on at Oklahoma and won the job after sitting out a year. Mayfield got Oklahoma within a semifinal loss to Georgia of the National Championship and won the Heisman Trophy in 2017. He’s one of the few people to have had to walk-on twice in his career, which makes his rise to the number one overall pick remarkable. Texas schools missed out big time, letting him eventually do damage at Oklahoma and now in the NFL with the Cleveland Browns.
The Next Generation Award Winners (The Famous Class of 2015)
(Kyler Murray also won a Heisman in this class but was a four and five-star)
Lamar Jackson fluctuated between a three and four star prospect on various services and was recruited by Clemson, Florida, Auburn and Florida State, but his high school ranking still didn’t justify the impact he was about to have on the sport as a whole. He chose to attend Louisville, a basketball school, largely because he wasn’t promised he’d play right away at other places. But it wouldn’t be until his Sophomore Heisman winning season that we saw what a QB like him could be in the NFL. He had 51 total touchdowns (30 passing, 21 rushing) and got the Cardinals all the way up to number three in the polls before losing a memorable showdown to Deshaun Watson and Clemson. How he elevated that program alone and showing that the hyper-mobile quarterback could succeed led to a trickle down effect for quarterbacks such as Kyler Murray. If Lamar Jackson was a prospect now, there’s no doubt in my mind he’d be ranked as a five-star. He was just three to four years too early to be evaluated properly. He went on to win MVP of the NFL with Baltimore doing a lot of the same RPO stuff he did at Louisville. It’s almost like you need to build a system around these types of QBs to succeed. Also, did you know Jackson originally blew up on Vine during his high school days but no one at the time knew it was him? Here’s the video you may remember:
Like Jackson, Joe Burrow would fluctuate between a three and four-star, but unlike Jackson a lot of Burrow’s recruiting came regionally: Ohio State, Cincinnati, Toledo, University of Ohio, Michigan etc. He signed for the Buckeyes but never got a chance to start, losing the job to Dwayne Haskins and transferring to LSU. Burrow’s recruiting is common of schools having a leg up finding undervalued players close by, but Burrow was also a trailblazer in the sense that many northern kids don’t then transfer to southern schools. Burrow would throw for 60 touchdowns in 2019 and win the Heisman and national championship. But Burrow barely cracking the ESPN 300 and having to wait four years to finally get a chance to shine in a QB friendly offense (Only threw 16 TDs the year before) makes his story one of if not the weirdest on this list. Burrow is supremely accurate and its an indictment on the Ohio State coaching staff and high school recruiters that they thought players like Dwayne Haskins had a better skillset. Burrow is also mobile enough to make him perfect for the modern game.
Overlooked Talents in Off The Radar States
Wilson completed 205 of 361 passes for 3,287 yards and 40 touchdowns with 11 interceptions as a high school junior. He also ran for 634 yards on 132 carries and 15 more scores while leading Collegiate to a third straight state title. Despite that, Rivals.com listed Wilson as a two-star recruit, its lowest ranking, and ESPN didn’t have him ranked in the Virginia state rankings. Mike Farrell, a recruiting analyst for Rivals.com, summed up Virginia football and Wilson this way:
“He was short. … If you remember the only sub-6-foot quarterback that had any sort of both collegiate and professional success prior to these guys was Doug Flutie, and that was 1984. He won the Heisman in ’84, so we are talking 20 years.
“Wilson played at Collegiate in Richmond, which back then had just bad football. Football in Virginia was in the Tidewater back then.”
Wilson played private school football against teams not as good as the public circuit in nearby states. But his 5’11” frame scared off teams, and just like Kyler Murray the baseball fears were real that Wilson would jump to the pros right from high school. He batted .467 his junior year, and some area scouts thought he would become a second baseman in the pros, but for now he was at shortstop. Wilson wanted to play both baseball and football in college which impacted his recruitment. University of North Carolina allowed him to do it but didn’t want to recruit him in football as a quarterback—rather an “Athlete,” which Wilson didn’t prefer. Wilson went on to pick North Carolina State and his ranking above definitely undersold his talent for both mobility, his rocket arm and sound decision making. Wilson would go on to win a Super Bowl and be the most influential player in Seahawks history. He, along with Drew Brees, really started to end the short QB narrative, and also the fact that he overcame his location being used against him to have a successful college career.
Wilson ended up winning the captaincy at Wisconsin when he transferred there as a grad transfer in 2011, leading the Badgers to a Rose Bowl. He was picked by the Yankees in the MLB draft but stopped pursuing baseball when his NFL dream became more apparent. Wilson was a third round pick in the NFL but immediately won the job, proving that sometimes talent isn’t always properly evaluated based on judgements of location or appearance.
Growing up literally across the street from a major program like the University of Oregon would seem to be an advantage, but Justin Herbert’s recruiting interest was one that had very little traction. As a standout player at Eugene’s Sheldon High School, in the same city as the University, Herbert threw for 37 touchdowns, 3,170 yards and ran for another 10 scores, but Portland State, Northern Arizona and Montana State were the only schools to register interest. Herbert held out for more hopes of getting exposure when Nevada and Oregon, the school he grew up rooting for, finally came calling. Mark Helfrich extended the offer and Herbert committed to play for the Ducks at their lowest point since the mid 1990s. Helfrich was also credited with discovering Heisman winner Marcus Mariota in another non-hotbed for recruiting: Hawaii. Helfrich was fired after Herbert’s freshman season despite Herbert winning the job halfway through the season, and Herbert would have three different head coaches and three different offensive coordinators in his four seasons at the helm.
What started as a program in disarray with a 4-8 record when Herbert arrived slowly morphed into the Oregon of old, starting 4-1 the next season before Herbert broke his collarbone. The coaching staff became uber cautious the rest of his career about this, and next season went 8-4 with a bowl win. Finally, his senior season he led Oregon to a Rose Bowl win and 11-2 record, and was shooting up draft boards due to his rocket arm and size (6’6” 225.) He got picked sixth in the 2020 draft and has a real shot to be the best QB in the class with the Los Angeles Chargers. Herbert didn’t get a ton of buzz because of his location— Oregon maybe gets 5-10 D1 prospects a year, and has never been a true quarterback hotbed. The competition and secrecy was one Oregon struck gold on, but it shows the process is an imperfect science that sometimes means having a QB literally in your backyard is what it takes. There’s no doubt if he played in California or Florida that three star would be higher. But I guess it was meant to be:
All in all, this recruiting stuff is a game of roulette, and often times you need to dig a little deeper beneath the surface to find the next NFL great. Most aren’t visibly apparent when the kid is 18 years old, and many are late bloomers who need a good situation. Whoever may find this use it as a lesson.